A standing audit of what medicine can actually do about human aging. Every intervention that claims to slow, stop or reverse it — hormones, senolytics, rapamycin, NAD+, partial reprogramming, stem cells, plasma exchange, skin, hair — is rated on two things only: how far it has been tested in humans, and what came out. Nothing here is advice; the point is to separate what is demonstrated from what is merely sold. Where it stands: 38 out of 100 on the scale below, and at the pace of the last ten years the first milestone that would really count — a randomised trial deferring several age-related diseases at once — arrives around 2036.
Last updated: 28 October 2026. · 11 axes, 57 interventions. Compiled automatically and updated weekly. A working document, not medical advice.
0 interventions have shown, in humans and on a hard clinical endpoint, a slowing of aging itself. One axis carries hard outcome data (GLP-1, SELECT: MACE −20%, n=17,604), 12 interventions earn a favourable verdict on a narrow indication, 13 an unfavourable one — 6 of those after a negative randomised trial.
How far are we, against the goal?
A ladder of qualitative milestones, from nothing to a biological age you can set. It is a judgement scale, and a non-linear one: the milestones are changes of kind, not percentages of progress. Going from 38 to 50 is far harder than going from 8 to 38.
Today: 38 / 100 ████████░░░░░░░░░░░░
- 20 · Risk factors controlled. Not smoking, sound blood pressure and metabolism, physical activity. Very real gains in life expectancy — but this is disease prevention, not modulation of aging.
- 35 · Slowing on biomarkers. Interventions move surrogate endpoints in humans: epigenetic clocks, pace of aging, inflammatory markers. No hard clinical endpoint.
- 50 · Aging clearly slowed. A randomised trial shows, on a composite clinical endpoint in humans, the simultaneous deferral of several age-related diseases. That is exactly what TAME had qualified as an endpoint with the FDA — and what nobody has yet achieved.
- 70 · Aging stopped. Mortality stops doubling every 7–8 years (the end of the Gompertz law) and the incidence of age-related disease stabilises instead of rising. The risk of dying becomes independent of age.
- 90 · Aging reversed. Measurable, durable, multi-organ restoration of function in older humans — not a clock that moves, a physiological function that comes back up and stays up.
- 100 · Control. Biological age becomes a parameter you set, in both directions, with acceptable safety.
Trajectory, 1990 to today
Same scale. At the slope of the last ten years, milestone 50 would be reached around 2036 — that is arithmetic, not a forecast.
| 1990 | ██░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 8 | Rudman (NEJM): GH in older men. +8.8% lean mass, no functional endpoint measured. Hormones replaced without knowing what is being changed. |
| 2000 | ██░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 12 | Longevity genetics: daf-2 in the nematode, Ames and Snell dwarf mice (+30–40%). Aging becomes a modifiable object in the laboratory. |
| 2009 | ████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 18 | Rapamycin extends the life of already adult mice (NIA Interventions Testing Program). The first gerotherapeutic reproducible across laboratories. |
| 2013 | ████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 22 | “Hallmarks of aging” and the Horvath clock. For the first time, a shared mechanistic framework and a quantitative measure. |
| 2016 | █████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 26 | Ocampo: cyclic partial reprogramming extends the life of progeroid mice (+25–33%). First senolytics identified. |
| 2019 | ██████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 30 | First human senolytic trials (n=9–14, open-label) and TRIIM (n=9). But RTB101 fails in phase 3 across 1,024 people: scale punishes. |
| 2023 | ███████░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 34 | SELECT: MACE −20% across 17,604 people without diabetes. Randomised plasma exchange. Third-generation clocks (DunedinPACE) that measure a pace rather than an age. |
| 2026 | ████████░░░░░░░░░░░░ 38 | First human dosed with partial reprogramming (9 June, ER-100), and the first lifespan extension by a GLP-1 in mice (+12.4% median, treatment started at 20 months — but HR not reported and maximum survival not analysed). … |
Skin and the visible face
Visible wrinkling from about fifty is not one process but three tissues on three different clocks, and one fact governs everything else: collagen is rebuildable and elastin is not.
- Collagen — renewable. Half-life of about 15 years in human skin (Verzijl 2000): it turns over, and it responds. Tretinoin raises collagen I formation by about 80% against vehicle (Griffiths, NEJM 1993); dermabrasion multiplies procollagen I mRNA roughly sixfold; fractional CO2 keeps it elevated for six months or more. This is the whole of what today’s treatments do, and it is real.
- Elastin — not renewable. Mean carbon residence time about 74 years (Shapiro, J Clin Invest 1991), and tropoelastin transcription stops at maturity: the elastic network is laid down in childhood and essentially never replaced. No intervention has ever been shown to regenerate organised, crosslinked, load-bearing elastic fibres in adult human skin. Retinoids restore fibrillin-1 microfibrils, which is the scaffold and not the fibre; device and filler “elastin” results are staining indices; solar elastosis is a deposit, not tissue.
- Fat and bone — volume, not surface. The midface deflates and the facial skeleton resorbs, which reads as aged before any individual wrinkle does. The only approach with randomised support is ASC-enriched fat grafting; deep radiofrequency and ultrasound tightening can make it worse, through documented facial fat atrophy.
Skin today: 40 / 100 ████████░░░░░░░░░░░░
- 20 · Damage slowed. Passed. Photoprotection and a retinoid demonstrably slow the accumulation of wrinkles in randomised trials — Nambour (n=903, 4.5 years) for prevention, 8 RCTs and n=1,361 for tretinoin. Modest, cheap, and the only part of this ladder that is settled.
- 35 · Collagen rebuilt. Passed. Interventions measurably raise collagen I synthesis and dermal density on paired human biopsies: tretinoin, dermabrasion and fractional CO2 all do it, and it is why treated skin is thicker and smoother. The elastic network is untouched throughout.
- 50 · Skin biology measurably younger. A randomised vehicle-controlled trial shows both a durable shift in a skin-specific aging measure on paired biopsies and a clinical endpoint, in the same trial. Nothing has done this. The only credible candidate is a topical senotherapeutic, whose human data are a press release on 11 paired biopsies with no clinical endpoint. Plausible 2031–2033 if a phase 2 starts.
- 70 · Skin aging stopped. No net annual loss of collagen, fibrillin and elastic-fibre density on sun-exposed skin under continued treatment. This requires maintaining elastin, for which there is no candidate anywhere in human development. The 2040s at the earliest.
- 90 · Skin rejuvenated. The elastic network is regenerated and the mechanical properties of young skin restored — smooth and elastic, not merely thicker. It needs a biology never demonstrated in any adult mammal. 2045 and beyond, and genuinely uncertain.
- 100 · Skin age adjustable. Skin age becomes a parameter you set, in both directions, with acceptable safety.
What actually works today, in order of evidence. (1) Not smoking, and daily broad-spectrum sunscreen — the only primary prevention ever tested in a randomised trial (Nambour, n=903 over 4.5 years, photoaging progression OR 0.76). (2) Nightly tretinoin — 8 RCTs, n=1,361, fine wrinkles MD 0.41, with irritation at OR 3.14 and documented publication bias. (3) Botulinum toxin for dynamic lines only — about 80% responders, 3 to 4 months, and no trial has ever shown it prevents static lines. (4) Fractional ablative laser for coarse wrinkles — the only device category with split-face randomised support. Everything beneath that, in the 2026 literature, is prospective single-arm work measuring against baseline.
So, on a timescale. Smoother, thicker, better-textured skin is available today and will keep improving incrementally — that is collagen, and collagen answers. A randomised trial showing both younger skin biology and a clinical endpoint is plausible around 2031–2033. Stopping skin aging requires maintaining the elastic network, for which there is no candidate anywhere in human development — the 2040s at the earliest. And restoring young, smooth, wrinkle-free skin means regenerating organised elastic fibres in an adult, never done in any adult mammal: 2045 and beyond, and genuinely uncertain. Anyone selling you the last one today is selling you the first one.
The 57 interventions
Bar length is how far the intervention has been tested, not the result obtained: a long bar with a red marker means well tested, and it did not work. Levels run 1 preclinical, 2 human pilot, 3 pilot RCT, 4 phase 2 RCT, 5 large RCT or hard endpoint. The verdict is the benefit/risk balance in anti-aging use by a person without the corresponding disease — several interventions rated unfavourable here are useful on their medical indication.
✓ Favourable ▲ Watch ● Insufficient ✕ Unfavourable
| Autologous fibroblasts (azficel-T) | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ▲ Watch | Skin & dermis |
| Botulinum toxin type A (dynamic lines) | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ✓ Favourable | Skin & dermis |
| Daily broad-spectrum sunscreen | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ✓ Favourable | Skin & dermis |
| Dutasteride 0.5 mg | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ▲ Watch | Hair |
| Exercise (aerobic and resistance) | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ✓ Favourable | Exercise |
| Hair transplantation (FUE/FUT) | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ✓ Favourable | Hair |
| JAK inhibitors (alopecia areata) | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ✓ Favourable | Hair |
| Levothyroxine “optimisation” | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ✕ Unfavourable | Hormones |
| Low-dose oral minoxidil | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ▲ Watch | Hair |
| Melatonin | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ▲ Watch | Hormones |
| NAD+ / NMN / NR | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ✕ Unfavourable | NAD+ |
| Oral collagen | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ✕ Unfavourable | Skin & dermis |
| Oral finasteride 1 mg | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ✓ Favourable | Hair |
| RTB101 (mTORC1 inhibitor) | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ✕ Unfavourable | mTOR |
| Semaglutide / GLP-1 agonists | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ✓ Favourable | Metabolic |
| SM04554 (topical Wnt) | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ✕ Unfavourable | Hair |
| Testosterone (confirmed hypogonadism) | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ▲ Watch | Hormones |
| Topical clascoterone 5% (Breezula) | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ▲ Watch | Hair |
| Topical finasteride (P-3074) | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ▲ Watch | Hair |
| Topical minoxidil 5% | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ✓ Favourable | Hair |
| Topical tretinoin | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ✓ Favourable | Skin & dermis |
| Transdermal MHT + micronised progesterone | █████ | 5 · large RCT / hard endpoint | ✓ Favourable | Hormones |
| ASC-enriched fat grafting (CAL) | ████░ | 4 · phase 2 RCT | ✓ Favourable | Facial volume |
| Fractional laser / RF microneedling | ████░ | 4 · phase 2 RCT | ✓ Favourable | Skin & dermis |
| Growth hormone | ████░ | 4 · phase 2 RCT | ✕ Unfavourable | GH / IGF-1 |
| Intravitreal UBX1325 (Bcl-xL) | ████░ | 4 · phase 2 RCT | ▲ Watch | Senescence |
| Laromestrocel (allogeneic MSCs) | ████░ | 4 · phase 2 RCT | ● Insufficient | Stem cells |
| LLLT (low-level laser) | ████░ | 4 · phase 2 RCT | ▲ Watch | Hair |
| Metformin (gerotherapeutic use) | ████░ | 4 · phase 2 RCT | ● Insufficient | Metabolic |
| Microneedling + minoxidil | ████░ | 4 · phase 2 RCT | ▲ Watch | Hair |
| MK-677 / GH secretagogues | ████░ | 4 · phase 2 RCT | ✕ Unfavourable | GH / IGF-1 |
| Photobiomodulation (red/NIR LED) | ████░ | 4 · phase 2 RCT | ▲ Watch | Skin & dermis |
| PRP (platelet-rich plasma) | ████░ | 4 · phase 2 RCT | ● Insufficient | Hair |
| Rapamycin (“anti-aging” dose) | ████░ | 4 · phase 2 RCT | ● Insufficient | mTOR |
| Senolytics dasatinib + quercetin | ████░ | 4 · phase 2 RCT | ▲ Watch | Senescence |
| Setipiprant (PGD2 pathway) | ████░ | 4 · phase 2 RCT | ✕ Unfavourable | Hair |
| Systemic DHEA | ████░ | 4 · phase 2 RCT | ✕ Unfavourable | Hormones |
| Topical niacinamide / vitamin C | ████░ | 4 · phase 2 RCT | ▲ Watch | Skin & dermis |
| Injectable biostimulators (PLLA, CaHA) | ███░░ | 3 · pilot RCT | ● Insufficient | Skin & dermis |
| Microfocused ultrasound / deep RF tightening | ███░░ | 3 · pilot RCT | ● Insufficient | Skin & dermis |
| Polynucleotides / PDRN skin boosters | ███░░ | 3 · pilot RCT | ● Insufficient | Skin & dermis |
| PP405 (follicle stem cell activation) | ███░░ | 3 · pilot RCT | ▲ Watch | Hair |
| Therapeutic plasma exchange (TPE) | ███░░ | 3 · pilot RCT | ● Insufficient | Plasma |
| Topical senolytic RLS-1496 | ███░░ | 3 · pilot RCT | ▲ Watch | Senescence |
| Exosome and stem cell clinics | ██░░░ | 2 · human pilot | ✕ Unfavourable | Stem cells |
| Hair exosomes | ██░░░ | 2 · human pilot | ✕ Unfavourable | Hair |
| HIFES / Emface | ██░░░ | 2 · human pilot | ● Insufficient | Facial volume |
| Partial reprogramming (ER-100, OSK) | ██░░░ | 2 · human pilot | ▲ Watch | Reprogramming |
| TRIIM-X (thymus: GH + DHEA + metformin) | ██░░░ | 2 · human pilot | ● Insufficient | GH / IGF-1 |
| Verteporfin (neogenesis) | ██░░░ | 2 · human pilot | ✕ Unfavourable | Hair |
| Anti-FSH antibody (MS-Hu6) | █░░░░ | 1 · preclinical | ▲ Watch | Hormones |
| Cell therapy / follicle neogenesis | █░░░░ | 1 · preclinical | ● Insufficient | Hair |
| Recombinant klotho | █░░░░ | 1 · preclinical | ▲ Watch | Plasma |
| Reversing grey hair | █░░░░ | 1 · preclinical | ● Insufficient | Hair |
| Senolytics on dermal papilla | █░░░░ | 1 · preclinical | ▲ Watch | Hair |
| SFRP1 / WAY-316606 | █░░░░ | 1 · preclinical | ✕ Unfavourable | Hair |
| Tropoelastin / elastic fibre regeneration | █░░░░ | 1 · preclinical | ● Insufficient | Skin & dermis |
The decisive datum behind each rating — trial name, sample size, p value — lives in the weekly note. This page carries the ratings; the notes carry the arguments.
The gap that defines the field
Two ratings out of 10 per axis: what the biology promises, and what is demonstrated in humans. The wider the gap, the further the axis is sold beyond its evidence. A judgement scale, not a measurement.
| plausibility | demonstrated | gap | |
| Partial reprogramming | ██████████ 10 | █░░░░░░░░░ 1 | 9 |
| mTOR / rapamycin | █████████░ 9 | ██░░░░░░░░ 2 | 7 |
| NAD+ / sirtuins | ████████░░ 8 | █░░░░░░░░░ 1 | 7 |
| Senescence / senolytics | █████████░ 9 | ███░░░░░░░ 3 | 6 |
| GH / IGF-1 | ███████░░░ 7 | █░░░░░░░░░ 1 | 6 |
| Plasma & circulating factors | ██████░░░░ 6 | █░░░░░░░░░ 1 | 5 |
| Stem cells / exosomes | ██████░░░░ 6 | ██░░░░░░░░ 2 | 4 |
| Hair & follicle | ████████░░ 8 | ████░░░░░░ 4 | 4 |
| Exercise | █████████░ 9 | █████░░░░░ 5 | 4 |
| Hormone replacement | ██████░░░░ 6 | ███░░░░░░░ 3 | 3 |
| Facial volume / fat | ███████░░░ 7 | ████░░░░░░ 4 | 3 |
| Skin & dermis | ████████░░ 8 | ██████░░░░ 6 | 2 |
| Metabolic (GLP-1, metformin) | ████████░░ 8 | ███████░░░ 7 | 1 |
The readouts that will settle it
A trial that slips from year to year is itself information.
- 2026 Q4 — TRIIM-X — thymus, epigenetic age. Randomised phase 2, n=85 targeted, primary completion announced for December 2025 — and a ClinicalTrials.gov record frozen since 7 May 2025 that still displays “Recruiting”. …
- 2026 — VIBRANT — rapamycin and ovarian aging. n=50 women aged 35–45 (NCT05836025), “active, not recruiting”, single site at Columbia. Primary completion ACTUAL on 21 October 2025, enrolment ACTUAL at 50, record unchanged since 26 December 2025. …
- 2027 — Anti-FSH (MS-Hu6) — first human dosing. Still no public IND and no registered human trial: the status has not moved in over a year. The package remains entirely preclinical, NIH funding U01AG073148. …
- 8 October 2026 — ER-100 — the first human data have landed. Reported on the day: 3 participants, all open-angle glaucoma, Dose Level 1 at 2×10¹¹ vg, a single intravitreal injection, OSK induced by 56 days of oral doxycycline under a prednisolone taper. …
- 19 October 2026 — VDPHL01 study 304 — the readout landed, and it is positive. Both co-primary endpoints MET at both doses, in a quadruple-masked placebo-controlled phase 3 of 536 men across 84 US sites (NCT06972264). At month 6: target-area non-vellus hair count +28.6 (8.5 mg once daily) and +36.4 …
- 2027 — Clascoterone (Breezula) — regulatory filings. SCALP-1 (actual n=703, actual primary completion 26 January 2026) and SCALP-2 (actual n=762, completed 16 July 2025): two trials of the same protocol, 1,465 participants, eighteen months apart. …
- 2029–31 — PP405 — the phase 3 is recruiting and the first patient is dosed. The only genuinely new mechanism in the hair field (metabolic awakening of follicle stem cells). No phase 2b was ever registered: after the phase 2a (NCT06393452, n=78, primary endpoints safety and pharmacokinetics), the programme …
- 2028 — SToMP-AD phase 2 — senolytics and Alzheimer’s. n=48, randomised double-blind, tau-positive (NCT04685590), dasatinib + quercetin against placebo capsules, sponsor Washington University School of Medicine — often wrongly attributed to UT Health San Antonio, and worth …
- 2028 — Rapamycin pre-frailty, Arizona. Phase 3 announced 1 April 2026: $12M in philanthropic funding (R. Ken Coit gift), University of Arizona and Banner Health, principal investigator Bonnie LaFleur, randomised double-blind, low-dose rapamycin against placebo, two …
- 2028–29 — TRIAD — Dog Aging Project. About 580 large-breed dogs, randomised double-blind, 3 years of treatment then lifelong follow-up, $7M from the NIA. …
- 2028+ — TAME — metformin. n=3,000, ages 65–79. Still no registration, ten years on, and no patient has ever been enrolled. 26 October 2026, a correction to our own wording, and it is worth making precisely because it cuts against a claim we …
Axis briefs
Hormone replacement — ✕ Unfavourable
Established. Correcting a documented deficiency, or treating menopausal symptoms. Transdermal oestradiol + micronised progesterone: no increase in thrombosis. …
Missing. Any evidence that a hormone slows aging. Skin: KEEPS, 4 years, no effect on wrinkles. And the “optimisation” side keeps backfiring: restoring euthyroidism loses 1.39 kg of which 0.95 kg is lean mass for 0.75 kg of fat (23 …
Tipping point. The anti-FSH antibody — the only endocrine idea that is not about topping a gauge back up. Still zero trials and zero public IND, and not swept nominally this cycle. …
GH / IGF-1 — ✕ Unfavourable
Established. That the intuition is inverted, and the case is strengthening on both sides. In animals: knocking out the GH receptor in mid-life (inducible KO at 12 months, Aging Cell, 5 Sept 2026) extends median survival in female mice …
Missing. A functional benefit in humans. The IGF-1/mortality relationship is U-shaped — “as low as possible” is wrong too. …
Tipping point. The thymic lever is bounded by age, and 19 October established the bound. Androgen ablation (degarelix 0.25 mg weekly for 4 weeks, or gonadectomy) restores inguinal naive CD8+ T cells from about 3×10⁵ to …
Senescence / senolytics — ▲ Watch
Established. Since 1 October 2026, a randomised placebo-controlled primary endpoint met. Dasatinib + quercetin in MASH (Nature Metabolism, PMID 42823536, NCT05506488), n=31, double-blind, intermittent dosing over three 7-week …
Missing. Precision, replication, and a clinical endpoint — and on 19 October the precision problem got worse while the placebo problem got better. The aligned comparison (PMC12879040) gives placebo MASH resolution of 13% in …
Tipping point. SToMP-AD, re-verified 26 October after several cycles unchecked: active not recruiting, record 1 April 2026, estimated primary completion 1 January 2028, n=48 estimated, dasatinib + quercetin against placebo, sponsor Washington …
mTOR / rapamycin — ● Insufficient
Established. The most reproducible of animal gerotherapeutics. In humans: acceptable tolerance on a weekly dose.
Missing. A primary endpoint met, and we are now at three consecutive failures. PEARL missed its own (p=0.94), RAPA-EX-01 too (p=0.089, and per-protocol it goes the wrong way), and on 18 September 2026 a 6-month double-blind …
Tipping point. VIBRANT, whose actual primary completion is confirmed at 21 October 2025 — the readout is therefore 370 days late as of 26 October 2026, and its estimated study completion of 1 September 2026 is 55 days past with the …
NAD+ / sirtuins — ✕ Unfavourable
Established. That oral precursors raise blood NAD+ reliably and dose-dependently. But it must be added: that number is not a marker of aging. Across seven independent cohorts (Nature Metabolism, May 2026), blood NAD+ varies …
Missing. Everything else, and the hard clinical endpoint is now in. 26 October 2026: the NOPARK debt is CLOSED, the paper is indexed as PMID 42848371, and the confidence interval settles the question in both directions at once. …
Tipping point. Nothing, clinically. Four independent converging pieces, and only one has a hard clinical endpoint, a phase 3 sample and a sponsor who wanted it to work. Elsewhere on the axis, 26 October: 65 records and no human …
Partial reprogramming — ▲ Watch
Established. In animals: vision restored, +109% of remaining life expectancy from systemic OSK in 124-week-old mice.
Missing. Any human efficacy data. And a route to systemic use: no dosing paradigm, no in vivo monitoring of loss of cell identity. …
Tipping point. The 8 October appointment was kept and the first human OSK data exist, but eighteen days on the central demand is still unanswered — and this time the silence is verified at the primary source. Life Biosciences …
Stem cells / exosomes — ✕ Unfavourable
Established. A single controlled signal survives: laromestrocel, +63.4 m on the walk test in the phase 2b frailty trial (n=148, p=0.008 at 9 months, non-significant at 6 months). …
Missing. Everything sold at retail, and the unregulated market is now publishing its own numbers. The first quantified series of the commercial extracellular-vesicle market in orthopaedics (Cureus, 15 October, PMID 42890957) is a …
Tipping point. 26 October 2026: still no ELPIS II manuscript at day 40, verified three independent ways, and twenty-five days of corporate silence. PubMed on laromestrocel OR lomecel without a date filter returns 8 records in …
Plasma & circulating factors — ● Insufficient
Established. That the mechanism is probably removal of pro-geronic factors, not addition of youthful ones: in mice, saline equals young plasma.
Missing. Any clinical endpoint. −2.6 years of biological age is a surrogate, in a small commercially sponsored trial, never replicated — and the only category that does not respond in the 51-intervention reanalysis is medical …
Tipping point. Klotho: an effect in primates with an inverted dose-response, and no human trial has ever reported data. 26 October 2026: the find of the cycle, and it moves AKL003 into the file’s hardest category. A press release …
Metabolic (GLP-1, metformin) — ✓ Favourable
Established. The only axis with hard outcome data: SELECT, MACE −20% across 17,604 people without diabetes. But state it precisely: the win is on events, not deaths. …
Missing. The demonstration that the effect is gerotherapeutic and not merely cardiometabolic — and 26 October 2026 puts a number on how little room is left for that. …
Tipping point. 26 October 2026: epigenetic clocks take a THIRD independent demolition in one year, and it is a systematic review. “Concordance between changes in epigenetic clocks and changes in clinical outcomes in geroscience …
Hair & follicle — ▲ Watch
Established. That three drugs work, modestly, and mainly as brakes: finasteride +54 hairs/cm² at 5 years, topical minoxidil +18, and extended-release oral minoxidil +22 to +30 net against placebo at 6 months across two independent …
Missing. Any human follicle neogenesis demonstrated in a controlled trial. And severe baldness is arithmetically unsolvable by surgery: about 7,000 grafts available against 10,000–15,000 needed. …
Tipping point. 26 October 2026: PP405’s recruitment divergence is SETTLED by a primary source, and the trial is live. Pelage announced on 14 October that the first patient has been dosed in the phase 2/3 AWAKEN — …
Skin & facial volume — ✓ Favourable
Established. That tretinoin and fractional laser work, modestly, on the dermis. And that ASC-enriched grafting retains 73% of the graft in the face.
Missing. Any non-surgical method of recreating fat volume. And deep RF/HIFU can worsen an already hollow face. 26 October 2026: 275 records, ONE item labelled a clinical trial, and it is disqualified by design — and the two …
Tipping point. The CP-A/LIFR biology (Science 2025) taken in reverse: inducing adipose progenitors locally in a depleted compartment. Nobody is asking this question. …
Watch log
Updated weekly; the 10 latest of 59 entries.
- 28 October 2026. A skin and physical-appearance section is added, with a progress scale of its own — and the honest answer it produces is an asymmetry, not a timeline. Eight interventions are rated (daily sunscreen, botulinum toxin, …
- 26 October 2026. The appointment was kept and the result is positive: VDPHL01 study 304 meets both co-primary endpoints, at both doses. …
- 26 October 2026. Epigenetic clocks take a third independent demolition in one year, this time as a systematic review, and the trivial factor on the metabolic axis is now measured at three quarters of the effect. (1) “Concordance …
- 26 October 2026. The find of the cycle, and it is not a result: AKL003 moves from “warning signal” to “product sold ahead of its evidence, documented”. The search was for a datum or a communication from Klothea Bio. …
- 26 October 2026. The NOPARK debt is closed, and the confidence interval settles the question in both directions at once — including against our own convenience. The paper is now indexed (PMID 42848371, JAMA, 8 October …
- 26 October 2026. Registries and governance: one divergence is settled by the sponsor itself, one of our own claims is withdrawn, a three-batch enforcement lull is broken, and the risk denominator of plasma exchange is finally quantified. …
- 19 October 2026. NAD+ is judged for the first time on a hard clinical endpoint, at phase 3 scale, and it fails. This is the heaviest result this axis has ever received. NOPARK (JAMA, online 8 October 2026, DOI …
- 19 October 2026. The senolytic MASH trial, recalculated: one reservation is largely withdrawn, and the one that replaces it is harder to lift. The aligned MAESTRO-NASH / ESSENCE comparison (PMC12879040) gives placebo MASH resolution of …
- 19 October 2026. Three converging negatives on the metabolic axis, and a debt settled by removing an entry rather than adding one. (1) The neuroprotective branch of GLP-1 closes in aggregate. A random-effects meta-analysis in …
- 19 October 2026. Testosterone takes a fourth independent dataset, the first in women and on a hard functional endpoint, and the regulatory thread ends without producing anything. A randomised double-blind placebo-controlled crossover …